The Yankees are 8-2 with a +27 run differential; the A’s are 3-7 with a -14 differential. New York also beat Oakland 5-3 on Tuesday, and MLB’s preview notes Jazz Chisholm Jr. has mashed in his career sample against Luis Severino. Oakland do have some power early in the year through Shea Langeliers, so I prefer the straight win to a run line.

The Oilers are coming off a 6-5 OT loss and are tied for first in the Pacific, while San Jose are still alive in the wild-card race. Both teams have real standings pressure, and Edmonton’s own pre-game report openly frames Tuesday’s game as one with “too many chances against.” Add a back-to-back setup for Edmonton and a high-end talent matchup with McDavid and Celebrini, and the goals angle looks better than trying to pick the winner.

This is a spot play. Washington are desperate, sitting five points out of a playoff spot with four games left, and Toronto are not in great form: NHL sources note the Leafs are 0-2-0 vs Washington this season, are home after losing three of four on a road trip, and are only 5-6-3 in the first game of a back-to-back.

Buffalo are tied on 102 points in a three-way race for first in the Atlantic and can regain sole possession with a win. The Rangers are eliminated, even if they have been playing better recently. Motivation is the key separator here. I do not love stepping in front of a team in its final home game, but Buffalo’s incentive is much stronger and their goalie history versus New York is a plus note from the Sabres’ preview.

This is mostly a class-gap and record-gap play. NBA.com lists Dallas at 25-53 and Phoenix at 43-35. The Suns are already locked into the Play-In, so this is not a perfect motivational spot, but Dallas’ season profile is still poor enough that Phoenix is the better side unless the market prices that edge too aggressively.

Paris come in as reigning champions, with a much stronger recent form line (WWWWLW) than Liverpool (LLWDLW). The UEFA preview also notes Paris’ strong recent knockout record against Premier League opposition, while Liverpool arrive after a 4-0 FA Cup loss to Manchester City. Team news pushes me further toward Paris: UEFA’s predicted team news lists Alisson Becker out, and losing that caliber of goalkeeper matters enormously in a first-leg away European tie.

Barça’s form is excellent at WWWWDW, but Atlético just played them on 4 April and lost only 2-1, which is useful because it reinforces the idea that Atleti can still create against this opponent. Team news also matters: Barcelona are listed without Raphinha and with De Jong short of match fitness, while Atlético are missing Oblak, which lowers my confidence in an Atleti clean sheet. With Barça’s attacking floor and Atleti’s counter threat, BTTS looks cleaner than picking a side.

Braga come in with the better recent form line at WLWLDW, while Betis are DLWDLL. It is also a first leg, which usually matters because both managers are clearly framing this as a 180-minute tie. UEFA’s preview points to Braga’s home ruthlessness in the round of 16, but also highlights Betis’ mixed away Europa record and Pellegrini’s emphasis on keeping a clean sheet. My read: controlled first-leg rhythm, fewer transition risks, and a strong chance this lands in the 1-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 range.

This is a classic price-versus-profile underdog spot. Oddschecker has Shnaider around 1/2 and Fernandez around 13/8, so the market is pricing Leylah at roughly 38% implied before margin. That is a real underdog number, not just a slight dog.

What makes the price interesting is the shape of both players’ second-round wins. Fernandez demolished Polina Kudermetova 6-2, 6-1 in just 1 hour 15 minutes, while Shnaider had to work much harder to get through Katie Volynets 7-5, 7-5 in 2 hours 22 minutes. That does not automatically mean Fernandez is more likely to win, but it does support the idea that the current gap in price may be a little too wide.

The more important structural point is that this matchup is on Charleston clay, and both players are lefties. WTA itself framed it as a “lefty Lowcountry showdown,” which matters because lefty-versus-lefty matches often reduce some of the usual pattern advantages that a left-hander gets over the field. In betting terms, that can flatten the matchup a bit and make a plus-money underdog more attractive than usual.

Fernandez’s case is mostly about clean recent form and matchup compression. She comes in as the No. 9 seed, looked extremely sharp in her opener, and did not spend much physical energy getting through. Shnaider is the No. 7 seed and deserved favorite status, but her win over Volynets was the kind of tight two-set match that shows quality without showing full control.

That is why I do not rate this as a high-stake underdog. Shnaider is still the rightful favorite. But at 13/8, Fernandez does not need to be the better player overall; she only needs to win more often than the market’s implied rate. My read is that Fernandez is closer to 41–43% here, which makes the dog side playable.

This match is on the Charleston Round of 16 today, on clay, and the market is treating it as fairly competitive rather than one-sided. Oddschecker’s prices around Starodubtseva 4/5 and Zarazúa 6/5 translate to rough raw implied win rates of about 55.6% and 45.5% before margin, which is exactly the kind of profile where a deciding set becomes more live.

Why that matters: the Over 2.5 sets angle is usually strongest when neither player is dominant on serve or return relative to the other, and when both have shown recent willingness to win ugly, recover after momentum swings, or drag matches long. Starodubtseva fits that well here because she just came through a three-set comeback over Gorgodze, 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, which is evidence of both volatility and resilience. Zarazúa, meanwhile, has taken out Sloane Stephens 6-2, 6-0 and then reached this round after another strong Charleston showing, so she comes in with enough form to threaten a set even if the market keeps Starodubtseva slight favorite.

The key betting logic is this: when the favorite is only mild, the straight match-winner market can be efficient, but the path to that result is often less efficient. A player priced near 1.70–1.80 is strong enough to win, but not strong enough to be trusted to do it cleanly every time. That is the sweet spot for overs and 3-set props. If the Over 2.5 sets price is around 22/15, that implies only about 40.5%. For a WTA clay match between two players the market separates by only a narrow gap, that number is at least reasonable to attack.

What supports the over specifically is the contrast in recent match shapes. Starodubtseva has already shown a dip-and-recover profile this week, losing the first set and then taking control. Zarazúa has shown sharper front-running form, including that dominant Stephens win. When one player is the steadier pre-match favorite but the other enters in cleaner short-term form, you often get a split-match pattern: one player starts better, the other adjusts, and the contest stretches. That is better for Over 2.5 sets than for laying a short favorite moneyline.